Exclusive. Putin’s next move.

If you believe all the narratives and hyperbole, then Russia has lost in Ukraine and the country is on the brink of economic implosion. That might be the nice fairy-tale told by President Zelensky to his sycophantic benefactors but, is this reality ? In this report and analysis I will outline the key moving parts that need to be considered and what can only be the logical conclusion to this tragic conflict.

Is Russia losing the war in Ukraine ? The logical answer is probably not. Despite the massive counter offensive launched in the summer by the Ukrainians, no significant gains have been achieved and no strongholds or bridgeheads have been secured. None of their military objectives were achieved.

In mid November a Project of the American Enterprise Institute think tank stated `If the West Cuts Aid to Ukraine, Russia Will Win. If the West Leans in, Ukraine can win`. Unfortunately since October the 7th, it seems that the West is leaning elsewhere. Funding has all but dried up this year. Flat Out News Stoltenberg has promised the Ukraine another 50B € but Hungary under Orban has blocked the deal. In the US the Republicans thwarted the latest package of aid and that has now been postponed until the new year. There is barely 1.1 B USD that the Pentagon will release by the end of this year.

So how is the conflict going ? Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi has highlighted key factors that have shifted the conflict towards more positional warfare. ‘ Positional warfare is defined as a form of warfare conducted along permanent and fortified front lines. It is characterized by battles occurring on continuous and constant fronts, with minimal changes to the boundaries. Each opposing side’s defence is deeply echeloned, and there is a high troop density in individual sectors’ . In positional warfare, tactics, firepower, and movement are employed to displace or deny the enemy from an area of advantage, meaning digging in and holding what you have making mechanized manoeuvres challenging or even impossible.

The difficulties experienced by the Ukrainians are further exacerbated by the following issues as highlighted by General Valery Zaluzhnyi:

• The prevalence of reconnaissance drones that has eliminated the possibility of large-scale surprise attacks. Both sides have established reconnaissance-strike complexes, integrating reconnaissance and strike drones with artillery and other long-range systems, discouraging the concentration of vehicles due to the associated risks.
• Russian electronic warfare, especially the widespread jamming of GPS signals and drone communications, significantly impairs Ukraine’s utilization of Western-provided precision munitions relying on GPS. This also undermines the effectiveness of Ukraine’s own drone systems.
• Extensive defensive works prepared by Russia over several months, complemented by deep and dense minefields, obstruct swift mechanized manoeuvring.
• Ukraine’s limited air defences and the absence of a modern air force enable Russian manned aircraft to operate closely in support of frontline units, targeting Ukrainian tactical reserves and logistics nodes.
• The shortage of Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities prevents effective operational-level interdiction, hindering the isolation of the battlefield from Russian operational and strategic reserves.
• Insufficient numbers of tanks and armoured vehicles, coupled with uncertainty about future replacements, compel Ukraine to conserve its mechanized forces rather than engaging in concentrated assaults given the current state of the battlefield.

In recent weeks we have seen an increase in Russian manoeuvres and advances. Ukraine’s ability to prevent Russian forces from conducting large-scale mechanized manoeuvre warfare, most crucially, remains absolutely dependent on the continued provision of Western aid on at least the current scale. Air defence, artillery, and anti-armour systems are existential requirements for Ukraine. F16s have been promised by the Netherlands and other European Allies but will these be too little too late ?

Ukraine cannot build or acquire enough such systems in the short term on its own to prevent the Russian military from regaining the upper hand to conduct mechanized offensive operations at a scale now that the ground is frozen hard and should achieve long lasting gains. And, achieving gains is exactly what the Russians are doing with their operations over recent days as the following great analyst @historylegends explains in this video. Watch here.

So, assuming the Russians start moving forward and take more ground, without the desperately needed air support, artillery, tanks and armoured vehicles which the Ukrainians are running low on, how will they continue this war, under funded, lacking in man power and waning International political and financial support?

Its just a matter of time. Despite what the main stream media have been reporting over the last 666 days of the war, I am of the opinion that Putin has taken a measured and long term view in order to minimise civilian casualties and get to a negotiated solution.

A draft agreement between Russia and Ukraine was reportedly reached. The terms of the agreement included regulations on the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and stipulating that Ukraine must adopt a Permanent Diplomatic Neutrality. This was reported on widely at the time.

According to Putin’s statements to an African Delegation in June of this year, Russia withdrew troops from Kyiv/Kiev and Chernihiv in accordance with the treaty that had been initialled and agreed by the Ukrainians. However, he claimed that Ukraine, acting on the orders of Washington, disregarded the treaty by discarding it “into the dustbin of history.”

Reports suggested that the person responsible for the collapse of the agreements was then-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson. Allegedly, Johnson convinced Ukrainian President Zelensky not to accept the agreements and urged the continuation of the conflict.

So theoretically the war could have ended in March of last year !

So now to throw some speculation into the mix, it was reported by Pronews.gr that on the 14th December Russia launched a massive attack on the Starokonstantinov military airbase in Ukraine. Starokonstantinov was a known command outpost where UKR and NATO military personnel would gather. It was hit by the hypersonic Kinzhal that completely annihilated the 30M deep underground military base killing Ukrainian and NATO commanders. This report has not been confirmed.

What is interesting and note worthy is that on the 20th December a Plane belonging to Russian Special Flight Squadron (Russian Air Force One) was in the US for a few days. Aircraft ID RA-96023 which is the plane normally used by Sergey Lavrov the Russian Foreign Minister. Its sister plane RA-96022 is that used by President Putin. On that date Minister Lavrov was in North Africa visiting Morocco and Tunisia so it is unlikely that he was in the US.

It should be noted that neither the Ukrainian Presidential plane UR-UBA or the Foreign Ministers plane UR-UKR where in the US at this time.

According to various sources and outlets, Russian officials arrived in Washington DC on Thursday morning for discussions regarding the terms of Ukraine’s surrender. It would appear that Ukraine was not represented. According to these unconfirmed reports, the terms presented to Washington for Ukraine include:

1. Complete surrender of Ukraine.
2. Surrender of all military equipment.
3. Russian territorial control extending from Kharkiv to Odessa, encompassing the entire Black Sea coast.
4. Stipulation that Western Ukraine cannot join NATO and must refrain from receiving any military aid.
5. Russia expresses indifference to the governing authority in Western Ukraine and has openly extended an offer to Poland.

Whether true or not it is highly telling that on the 19th December in Putin’s address to the Defence Ministry Board he finished with this closing statement;

Here is what I would like to say in closing: Russia was the only guarantor of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. I mentioned this earlier. When creating the Soviet Union, Russia transferred to it vast historical territories, Russian territories, along with the population, a huge potential, and invested immense resources into this land.

The western lands of Ukraine? We know how Ukraine obtained them. Stalin gave them away after World War II. He gave part of Polish lands, Lvov, and so on including several large regions with a population of ten million. Not to offend the Poles, he compensated for their losses by giving them the eastern German lands, the Danzig (Gdansk) Corridor, and Danzig itself. He took some from Romania and some from Hungary and gave it to Ukraine.

The people who live there – many of them, at least, I know this for sure, 100 percent – they want to return to their historical homeland. The countries that lost these territories, primarily Poland, dream of having them back.

In this sense, only Russia could be the guarantor of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. If they do not want it, so be it. History will put everything in its place. We will not interfere, but we will not give up what is ours. Everyone should be aware of this – those in Ukraine who are aggressive disposed towards Russia, and in Europe, and in the United States. If they want to negotiate, let them do so. But we will do it only based on our interests.

Assuming the attack at Starokonstantinov Airbase did happen on the 14th December this year. This will have greatly impacted Ukraine’s strategic command and control structure. Without the military leadership the frontlines will be in complete disarray. We are starting to see this and we expect continued and increased advances from the Russians.

Whether or not peace talks did take place between the 20-22 Dec in the US, it is clear that Russia now has military superiority and will ultimately win on the battle field. Unless Ukraine’s International partners step up, this outcome is inevitable. The saving possibility for Zelensky is that the US release early next year the eagerly needed financial and armament aid together with an additional USD 50 B from Europe. But, what would be their incentive ?

Russia has presented evidence to the UN over the past 18 months, indicating the production of biological weapons in US-funded labs in Ukraine. Russia has demanded a UN Security Council investigation into the US biological network in Ukraine as a stipulation for peace. President Biden is said to be reluctant to pursue peace talks with Putin due to his alleged involvement in these activities. It is noteworthy that these biolabs were initially denied by mainstream media but later acknowledged, with claims that they are not nefarious. Hunter Biden is reported to have ownership of a biolab company operating in Ukraine that was studying bat coronaviruses before the pandemic. This is something Flat Out News will look into in more detail in a future article.

The claim suggests that the significant financial investment in Ukraine and Biden’s reluctance to pursue peace are driven by the desire to avoid scrutiny and potential consequences related to allegations of biological weapons production. Russia is framing this as seeking justice for crimes against humanity, citing violations of the Biological Weapons Treaty.

So what is Putin’s next move ? Here at Flat Out News we endeavour to connect the dots.

Russia’s strategy appears evident. Apart from small tactical advances, the need for large-scale offensives and potential casualties are not necessary. Putin seems satisfied with holding his ground, disrupting Ukrainian supply lines, leveraging air dominance to eliminate NATO supplies en-route to the frontline, and letting internal challenges lead to Ukraine’s deterioration. The aim also is to exhaust NATO’s resources and diminish its support.

Conclusion

Whether in the short term or medium term. Complete unconditional surrender is the only possible outcome bar direct military intervention by the West. If this conflict continues into the next US administration and Trump wins, you can be sure that all funding will cease. For the Biden administration and his masters, it is essential to keep this war going to keep all their grubby secrets hidden.