Iranian Retaliation. Flat Out Opinion

Last night we finally saw the Iranian response to the Israeli bombing of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus on the 1st of April this year. Dubbed operation True Promise, Iran launched 185 drones and 36 cruise missiles. In a coordinated attack launching from Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, multiple targets were hit including the Nevatim Airbase in the Negev Desert that has been battered with 13-14 Ballistic missiles resulting in serious damage to equipment and infrastructure.

Israel has vowed to strike back within the next 24 hours according to online sources and have already furnished plans to the US giving the locations of it’s “counter-retaliation”. In addition Israel has called for an immediate meeting of the UN Security Council.

Iran in a post from the Permanent mission to the UN stated ‘ the matter can be deemed concluded’!

Is the Israeli response going to escalate or will they show restraint and let the situation calm down ?

The Initial response we expected from Iran after the assassination of key IRGC officers and the attack on the Embassy which is considered Iranian sovereign soil on April 1st, was not forthcoming. Indeed restraint was shown and it became clear that a deliberated and more measured approach would likely prevail. This leads me to opine that during the last few weeks, back channels through the State Department and Israel were open and discussions took place.

Iran is a proud Nation and this affront could not go without some type of reprisal. This is what happened last night. If the true purpose was an all out war, then the attack would not have been so widely reported prior to the launch and we would not have so much footage available. This I believe was to save face on the world stage at the same time as allowing Israel and its partners to intercept the majority of the missiles, 99% according to the IDF.

Lets not forget what Trump said about his communications when he was President regarding Iran who had to respond to the killing of Solemeini,

¨Iran contacted us and told us that it would launch its missiles at one of the military bases. They told us not to worry because the missiles would not reach our bases.¨

By the same token former head of Mossad, Cohen said this morning:

‘Iran informed us in advance that it intends to launch an attack against Israel‘

‘It is not in our interest to enter into a direct confrontation with Iran.’

I do not recommend a response to Iran’s attack. We must not waste the alliance with us in confronting it.

Also Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces:

‘Operation True Promise against Israel has been completed, Iran does not plan to continue it‘

Unfortunately, it seems that despite the opportunity now to de-escalate the situation Netanyahu is hell bent on a disproportionate response, which if it goes ahead would certainly engulf the whole region to a point of no return.

Latest indications suggest that Israel is poised for retaliatory strikes tonight, as the War Cabinet is set to convene at 15:30 local time to assess targets and strategy. The US has reiterated its stance of abstaining from any participation in strikes against Iran.

Tehran has unequivocally warned that any retaliatory strike will trigger a cycle of counterattacks from Iran if Tel Aviv refuses to acknowledge the attack launched last night in retaliation for the killing of IRGC Commanders in Syria.

The next few hours are crucial and we hope that there are some serious behind the scenes negotiations to stop an Israeli response and thus a wider conflict which essentially will affect us all.