Supply chain issues incoming

Yesterday, Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Gulf of Aden was announced. A US led coalition of 10 countries to address maritime security issues in the Gulf of Aden and the Southern Red Sea. On Friday Maersk the largest shipping company in the world ordered all their ships approaching the chokepoint in the gulf to ‘pause their journey until further notice’. Since the announcement we can see a massive flotilla that originally was heading west has now turned south towards the Cape. Indeed 7 of the largest fleets have also decided to give the Gulf a wide berth. This includes MSC, Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd and Euronav to name a few.

Included with the US, the other countries in the coalition are the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. Of those, UK, France, Italy, Canada are obvious members with Norway looking in some way to protect their massive shipping interests? Spain with their massive refining infrastructure relies on Middle Eastern Oil.

So what are the takeaways we can see from this latest US move. Of the Middle Eastern countries only Bahrain has stepped up. With a tiny navy consisting of 7 combat vessels, 31 patrol craft its influence will be negligible. Home to US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth fleet its inclusion was never in doubt and unfortunately for them unavoidable. What is more telling however is the absence of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and of course Turkey.

Egypt is losing considerable revenue in transit fees through the Suez, but are treading a fine line so as not to be viewed as helping Israel in any way. Indeed many commentators have encouraged Egypt to close the Suez canal and exert pressure on Israel and the West to stop the massacre in Palestine and find a negotiated solution. Egypt is in an awkward position.

This lack of Middle Eastern support also shows how there exists fear and danger of crossing Iran even via one of its proxies. Although denied by Iran, it is widely believed that the Houthis are trained by the Revolutionary Guards and are supplied weapons by the regime. This claim is disputed by the Internationally recognised Government in Sanna, who have said that they ¨develop their own weapons¨. And, weapons they have, including Tofan, Borkan, and Quds missiles modelled on Iranian weapons which can hit targets up to 2,000 km away. In addition their arsenal also comprises ballistic missiles and weaponized drones with the capability to strike targets in Israel from distances exceeding 1,000 miles.

So why is this coalition even necessary when the US have two Two US carrier strike groups USS Eisenhower and USS Ford, currently in the region ? With US Carrier Strike Group 2 CVN-69 spotted 188 km SE of the Bab al-Mandab Straight and in a position to launch attacks if ordered. Also to be considered is the amount of time for the coalition forces to group and organise themselves under a single command which will probably be a US Navy commander. The optics look like a long protracted operation is expected which will potentially cause two major problems.

Firstly, the impact on Europe can not be understated, already receiving less Russian oil due to sanctions, the reliance on Middle Eastern oil has increased considerably. With supply issues through the Suez, this will only exacerbate not only oil but other goods from the East.

Secondly, a protracted operation combined with the ongoing war in Palestine has the possibility to draw in other Arab countries into this conflict who up until now remained restrained. With the daily images of the atrocities being committed in Gaza, their patience may be waning and their citizens may demand action.

From North Africa across the middle East and to the doorstep of Turkey and Iran, you have a common people with a common religion, culture and language. If they were to Unite with the oil and mineral wealth they have, they would surely be a world force to be reckoned with. Now lets add Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan etc, to the equation then you control everything between Europe and the East.

So what will transpire ? Winter is upon us, Ukraine have all but admitted they have lost. International condemnation of Israel continues to grow and it is becoming more isolated. It’s de-facto closest ally America is approaching the most pivotal election in a generation and it looks like the Democrats will lose monumentally. The new administration will be more concerned on fixing things at home before committing more aid overseas. Therefore Israel will be forced to the negotiation table with increasing pressure from the international community and will be forced to accept a two state solution. Something by the way, that despite the Oslo Accords, The Abraham accords and UN resolutions is something that they have only ever paid lip service to.

The Masada-Complex. In 70 AD during the period of the destruction of Jerusalem and the second temple, Jewish rebels fled to the fortified mountaintop of Masada. A three month siege ensued. Finally the Romans under Flavius constructed a ramp and were about to breach the fortifications. Instead of surrendering and facing sure death or enslavement, they killed their families burnt the stores and then killed themselves.

Masada has now become ingrained in the collective Jewish cultural consciousness. There is reference to a ‘Masada complex,’ reflecting a mindset akin to a ‘you’ll-have-to-kill-me-first’ attitude. Certain factions of the Jewish Defense League take their oaths on Masada, incorporating the commitment that “The Masada shall never fall again.”

I think the worst is yet to come.