Possible False Flag Incoming

Just two days after announcing a US led coalition of 10 countries to address maritime security issues in the Gulf of Aden and the Southern Red Sea, the US Carrier Strike Group 2 CVN-69 is spotted just 43 nautical miles off the coast of Yemen.

Why would you place such a valuable military asset so close to danger ? We already know that the Houthis have a vast arsenal of missiles and drones that are well within the range of Carrier Strike Group CVN 69. They have already launched  over 100 one-way uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and ballistic missiles, targeting 10 merchant vessels involving more than 35 different nations.

This show of projected power may be a way of baiting the Houthis into a larger conflict and rekindle the war started in 2015 led by a Saudi coalition which has not achieved its aims to date but, did bomb Yemen back a hundred years. As per the United Nations, Yemen holds the 168th position out of 177 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI), which assesses life expectancy, education, and standard of living. Yemen holds the lowest HDI rank among the Arab states.

Despite the internal socio-economic problems, the Houthis like Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon are showing solidarity with the Palestinians and disrupting the Israelis as much as they can. The presence of Carrier Strike Group 2 adds a further layer onto this complex situation.

Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, the leader of Yemen’s Houthis, issued a warning on Wednesday, stating that if Washington targets the group, US warships will face retaliation. This comes in response to the announcement of the US forming a coalition to counter Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea which now comprises more than 9 countries as Denmark joined yesterday.

The Houthis have been causing disruptions to maritime trade in the Red Sea over the past two months. They have specifically targeted ships owned by Israelis or those they believe are heading to Israel. The initial ship subjected to such an attack was the Galaxy Leader, which is partially owned by a British company under the control of Israeli shipping magnate Rami Unger. The Houthis seized control of the ship and redirected it to Yemen. It has also been reported on social groups that the Houthis have started mining the Red Sea as this unconfirmed photo below shows. This week alone over 300 ships have rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.

It is worthy to note that the cost to keep this operation by the Houthis ongoing is negligible. According to US estimates, the domestically produced drones cost around $2,000 each. In contrast, the munitions used by US warships in the Red Sea range between $1 million and $4.3 million each.

“The high cost quickly becomes a problem because the most benefit, even if we do shoot down their incoming missiles and drones, is in their favor,” Mick Mulroy, a former US defense official and CIA officer, told POLITICO. “We, the US, need to start looking at systems that can defeat these that are more in line with the costs they are expending to attack us.”

But why do they continue attacking ships ? The Houthis have asserted that ships without connections to Israel need not be concerned, emphasizing their intention to target only vessels associated with Israel or engaged in transporting goods to and from Israel. However, verifying the ownership of ships can be challenging, and some of the targeted companies have refuted any affiliations with Israel altogether.

The Houthi leadership have stated that their operations will cease when Israel ceases all hostile operations in Palestine, although the likelihood of this in the near future is doubtful. The United Nations Security Council yesterday postponed a highly anticipated vote on a resolution, originally scheduled for Tuesday, calling for a cessation of hostilities in the Gaza conflict and a substantial increase in aid deliveries. The delay, requested by the United States, aims to provide additional time for negotiations, as indicated by diplomats.

Meanwhile advisors to Biden have drawn up a strategy whereby they would attack the Houthis directly in Yemen, which they refer to as a ¨heavy¨ response. To reiterate, the Houthis will not attack US or Operation Prosperity Guardian assets unless they are directly targeted. This puts the US in an awkward position. Do they initiate a cease fire in Gaza which would stop the attacks ? Probably not. Or do they continue with this maritime initiative that has the potential to escalate into a larger regional conflict ?

Lets also not forget that The Houthis are essentially a proxy of Iran. Iran continues to deny its assistance militarily although this is probably not the case. If the US hits targets in Yemen, this can only have the effect of drawing Iran directly into this conflict, this in turn in all likelihood would engulf the entire region although Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has made it clear that his country would continue to support Hamas and the Palestinian people but it does not want to go to war itself.

Saudi Arabia who have an uneasy truce with the Houthis would be unlikely to support an escalation of hostilities, indeed they are not part of Operation Prosperity Guardian. Egypt has no upside in getting involved either so ultimately the Industrial Military Complex would be potential winners together with Israel who could continue their operations while international focus is elsewhere, pretty much like the situation in Ukraine today.

An alternative scenario. In the past the US has been involved in many nefarious actions to forward a particular agenda especially one of war. On August 2, 1964, the USS Maddox destroyer was reportedly engaged by North Vietnamese forces in small gunboats while supposedly conducting reconnaissance in the Gulf of Tonkin. However, it was later revealed that the Maddox was not on a reconnaissance mission; instead, it was involved in a joint CIA-South Vietnamese covert intelligence operation known as ‘Operation Plan 34A.’ Once again, the public was misled into accepting a false-flag pretext for the involvement in the Vietnam War as evidence points to the fact that the USS Maddox was never attacked.

Other examples of this false flag strategy to initiate a war include Saddams non existent chemical weapons, 911 and Operation Northwoods in Cuba to name a few.

So could this be part of a sinister plot to expand the troubles in the region ? Possibly but we will need to wait and see. As it stands the Houthis have virtually closed the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight, reduced cargo traffic into Israeli ports by 80% and diverted hundreds of Israel owned or bound ships. What we do know is that this will be a very tense few days which may change the future in the region forever.