OPG Coalition of the unwilling ?

Since its inception 10 days ago, Operation Prosperity Guardian OPG, is starting to show cracks. Together with a mission of safe guarding maritime traffic in the Red Sea against a determined Houthi force, while balancing so as not to create a larger regional conflict, certain allied countries have withdrawn.

Of the 20 or so coalition members France, Spain and Italy have said that they would only participate under the command of an international body such as the UN, NATO or the EU.

Just after the announcement of the formation of the Coalition, the Spanish government expressed dissatisfaction as the inclusion of Spain in Operation Prosperity Guardian by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin came without prior notice. Pilar Alegría, the spokesperson for the Spanish government, had to refute Spain’s involvement, stating that the country would not participate “unilaterally” in the coalition. However, the Spanish Ministry of Defense clarified that Spain could potentially engage “within the framework of NATO or the European Union.”

The French Defence Ministry expressed its endorsement of initiatives aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and its vicinity. While confirming its ongoing operations in the region, the ministry emphasized that its vessels would remain under French command.

Similarly, Italy’s Defence Ministry announced the deployment of the naval frigate Virginio Fasan to the Red Sea, emphasizing the mission’s focus on safeguarding national interests in response to explicit requests from Italian shipowners. The ministry clarified that this action fell within its existing operations and was distinct from Operation Prosperity Guardian.

So it is starting to look like this cobbled together Coalition in Washington will be lacking support from three major European allies.

Lets not also forget that 8 nations wish to remain undisclosed and of the coalition members not one has a border on the red sea and none of those that do have joined, namely Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt.

Egypt and Saudia Arabia close allies of the United States would have major issues both domestically and regionally if they were to join and according to an Al Jazeera opinion piece ‘ would not want to be seen engaging an Arab country‘ .

Australia, also a steadfast ally of the U.S., has expressed its intention to participate in the Pentagon-led campaign, maintaining a strategic emphasis on the Pacific region. The nation plans to deploy 11 personnel to the operational centre based in Bahrain. Notably, Australia has clarified that it will not be sending any military vessels into the Red Sea area as part of its involvement in the campaign.

So where does this leave the coalition ? As with every war optics are everything. The US wants to project that power, unfortunately it has only mediocre international support to join. Admittedly, it is in everyone’s interest that the lanes are kept open but at what risk ? Possibly increasing regional instability by drawing Iran into the conflict?

Two days ago an action by the IDF in targeting and assassinating Brigadier General Sayyed Razi Mousavi, one of the top IRGC commanders in Syria may just do that. Iran has vowed revenge said Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).

Things are going to be very tense for the next few days with Israel on high alert for an Iranian retaliation. Maybe Iran will retrain itself in the short term and look to a more long term strategy while continuing to hassle the allied countries through proxies. Expect Houthi operations to continue and increase against Israeli assets and Israeli bound ships.

It is noteworthy that the Houthis have consistently asserted that they will not target ships not bound for Israeli ports. However, despite this assurance, major shipping companies have opted to reroute their vessels from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope. This alternative route significantly extends sailing times, prompting carriers to increase cargo prices and adjust schedules. Consequently, the actions of the Houthis are poised to exacerbate inflation in Western countries, potentially leading to a sharp and prolonged economic downturn.

Ironically, the Houthis do not appear to stand to gain anything directly from their efforts. Their actions, undertaken at considerable risk of retaliation from the United States, seem aimed at pressuring Israel to halt its sustained bombardment of the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the Houthis seek to facilitate access to food, water, and medical supplies for the distressed Palestinian population.

While the Houthis’ display of selfless compassion and humanity might warrant applause, Washington perceives their actions differently. The U.S. government does not view the Houthis’ motives as commendable, virtuous, or just.

We will just have to wait and see how this story develops.