Do Not Poke the Bear !

At some point the Bear is going to bite ! Many thought that was yesterday when a massive Russian air strike that started at 3am local time targeted military and military production infrastructure. Described as the biggest air assault since the Special Military Operation was launched on February 24th 2022. Despite over 158 missiles and drones being launched, I believe that this may be just a prelude to the main offensive advance due at the start of 2024 unless a negotiated solution is reached.

According to the MSM, Volker Türk, the UN human rights chief, stated that the attacks carried out in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine targeted a broad spectrum of civilian infrastructure. This included residential buildings, a maternity hospital, schools, kindergartens, parks, a metro station, a shopping mall, and even energy infrastructure.

Furthermore, at the UN Security Council meeting yesterday several members of the council, including the United States, France, and Britain, voiced strong condemnation of the attacks on Ukraine. This signifies a collective stance against the military actions taken by Russia in the ongoing conflict, highlighting international concern and disapproval. China’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Geng Shuang, refrained from condemning the attacks on Ukraine and instead advocated for a “political solution” to the conflict.

In a detailed response, Russia’s UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzya contended that Russia had exclusively targeted military infrastructure in Ukraine. Nebenzya placed the blame for civilian casualties on Ukraine’s air defence systems, suggesting that these systems were responsible for unintentional harm to non-military structures and individuals. This perspective aligns with Russia’s assertion that its military operations are focused on strategic military targets, emphasizing that any civilian casualties were a result of Ukraine’s defensive measures.

I find it quite perplexing that when Russia attacks Ukraine there is condemnation from the Western powers via the UN and yet when there is blatant systematic attacks on a civilian population as in Gaza, they remain silent. I digress.

According to some local online social accounts, Russia has destroyed all NATO Reconnaissance Radar Systems in ‘Smela’, ‘Lviv’, ‘Kyiv’, and ‘Kharkiv’. According to these unconfirmed reports, in Smela where the 115th Radio Engineering Battalion under the 138th Air Defence Brigade, the reconnaissance systems, were completely knocked out. This also included a lot of high ranking NATO officers who were there as operators.

Lets also not forget the massive attack on December 14th at the Starokonstantinov airbase which was a known command and control outpost of the AFU and NATO. Again from unconfirmed reports, targeting the eyes and ears of Ukraine.

If indeed these Military objectives were achieved then either this is the beginning of the end and will force Ukraine to the negotiating table, although given their current military predicaments, lack of munitions, manpower and mechanised divisions, there is not much that they can bargain with. Or, they will continue this charade at the behest of their masters and lead Ukraine into total ruin and annihilation.

As reported by Politico, in the last few days we have seen a slight change from the Biden administration and European officials who are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

It should be clear to everyone by now that the only solution is a negotiated one. Russia continues to affirm that it has no desire to conquer Ukraine, but to protect the Russian civilian population in Donetsk and Lugansk.

In a report at the beginning of December by Reuters, Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations “in a moment” if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Moscow was demanding that;

• Ukraine cease all military action,
• change its constitution to enshrine neutrality,
• acknowledge Crimea as a Russian territory, and
• recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

But, the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was “not true” that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.

“We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot,” he said.

Another point which was not discussed in depth was the Russian non-negotiable stance that Ukraine CANNOT join NATO. This was one of the earliest points that Putin emphasised. Russia would not accept NATO expansion moves to its doorstep in the same way as America would not accept Russian Missiles on its doorstep during the Cuban crises.

Now that Finland is the 33 country to join NATO and shares a border we may see this story develop which we will of course bring to you.

So when does the Ukrainian comedian realise that he is now at the end of the road ? I use that phrase fairly. He was a comedian who reached the heights of power and has been beautifully manipulated into fighting a proxy war on behalf of the West. The problem is, as with many people in power, that power can go to their head and they start believing the rhetoric. I think that its time that the West reign in the little man and call it quits. There can be no gains if they continue with this folly.